Monday, September 14th, 2015 morning update. This week we have the Quad Witching where 4 different contracts sets all expire in the same week. It can make for some wild swings as traders close them and roll out to the next month. But the big everyone is watching and waiting on is the FOMC meeting this Wednesday/Thursday. This is the one where the Fed's are supposed to announce a rate increase. Usually what happens is a move up into the close after some wild swings in both direction to shake people out. I'll just follow the charts and let them tell me the direction, which I suspect will be down after a shakeout, and down into Friday. this is also "monthly option expiration" week, which is bullish about 80% of the time as the market makers drive everything up higher so they can keep the money from all the "puts" sold last week as they expire worthless. But the charts tell me we should drop soon, and I can't see them rallying up all week until Friday. Next week is usually bearish so on a bigger picture I'd look to get short later this week and hold into next week. But let's take it one day at a time first...
Today we have resistance from this falling trend line that's coming in around 1960 on the ES Futures. Other then that we could be in a tight range today because it's a Monday and traders tend NOT to take big position until in the day or Tuesday, and also because many are sitting on the sidelines until the FOMC meeting outcome is known.
Summary: I see no big move up or down today... just more chop in a triangle to frustrate both bulls and bears. However, I'm more bearish today then bullish... just don't think they will allow a break of the lower rising trend line on the triangle to happen yet.
Personally, I like to see a quick move up Tuesday to that horizontal line of resistance around 1980 to short at, as that would also be a nice "false breakout" of the triangle (which commonly happens) before it reverses and goes back down. MACD's below are getting overbought but could extend up to a +5 to +10 area before topping out and rolling over.
Summary: I see no big move up or down today... just more chop in a tringle to frustrate both bulls and bears. However, I'm more bearish today then bullish... just don't think they will allow a break of the lower rising trendline on the triangle to happen yet.