Still stuck in a tringle on this 60 minute ES Futures charts. Other charts on the SPX and SPY have similar patterns. Smaller triangles seem to be broken and a larger one shows up to contain the market.
Nothing. While I'd love to give you a forecast with high odds of the market going up or down I can't. we are still range-bound, trading sideways while waiting on the FOMC meeting this coming Thursday. Until we get closer (maybe Wednesday.. certainly early Thursday) I don't see traders taking on too much risk by getting short or long in front of the meeting.
My "Non-Technical" outlook (part "Gut" and part "Historical Data") says we'll rally up to 2000 or more on the SPX (around 200 SPY) after the meeting and into Friday. Why? Because of 2 reasons... one being the past stats for this 37th week of the year being bullish 90% of teh time, as well as the normal stats that the monthly option expiration week is bullish 80% of the time.
The 2nd we have the very high number of put contracts expiring this Friday at the 200 strike price. If they were insiders bying them (like the crash week in August) then we could expect a big drop so all those puts steal the most money from the sheep and give it to the insiders. But let's think logically here for a minute. When we were in the mid-late August, before the crash, all the sheep were long and very bullish... which is why those large open interest positions in puts expiring late August were real insiders buying them and not the sheep. But that rarely happens. I'd guess the last time there were that many insiders buying puts was in the 2011 August crash. A good 98% of the time I'd say the open interest in any position is made up with average sheep tricked by the main stream media to get short as the world is ending soon and another crash is coming... which is always the misdirection to get them trapped on the wrong side of the trade again. My thoughts are simple... they (the "market makers") will run the market up into Friday to make all those puts expire worthless so they can once again keep all the money they got from the sheep last week selling it to them. What strike price am I talking about... the 200 level. It's got open 279,348 interest contracts of "Puts" expiring this Friday, with 206,128 in "Calls".
Due NOTE... the charts aren't giving me any clear direction yet. So all that guessing about the direction based on past starts and interest is just that... GUESSING!